Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,047
Return on staked
+16.9%
Bets
51/62 won
Edge vs price
+10.0 pts ±5.3
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +1.9 pts (21/31). Newer half: +18.1 pts (30/31).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 28, 06:23 ESTAug 26, 04:07 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26? | 76¢ | called | 59d ago |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-16? | 66¢ | missed | 69d ago |
| Exact Score: France 3 - 1 England? | 93¢ | called | 99d ago |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 | 79¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 | 79¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina? | 95¢ | called | 101d ago |
| England vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 | 79¢ | called | 101d ago |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | 81¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 60¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Spread: France (-1.5) | 81¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 60¢ | called | 102d ago |
| Will France win on 2026-07-14? | 60¢ | called | 102d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.