Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$143
Return on staked
-11.0%
Bets
6/13 won
Edge vs price
-7.8 pts ±13.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +14.0 pts (4/6). Newer half: -26.6 pts (2/7). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 01, 08:13 EDTOct 24, 15:24 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread: Heat (-3.5) | 50¢ | missed | 6h ago |
| Kansas State vs. Arizona State | 51¢ | missed | 13h ago |
| Clippers vs. Lakers | 76¢ | called | 1d ago |
| Grizzlies vs. Warriors | 60¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: Warriors (-3.5) | 52¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Pelicans vs. Jazz | 47¢ | missed | 1d ago |
| Spread: Raptors (-10.5) | 50¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Kings vs. Clippers | 64¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Spread: Nets (-1.5) | 52¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 59¢ | missed | 20d ago |
| Cardinals vs. Giants | 43¢ | called | 21d ago |
| Cowboys vs. Texans | 41¢ | called | 22d ago |
| Steelers vs. Browns | 57¢ | missed | 23d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.