Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$348
Return on staked
-29.0%
Bets
5/12 won
Edge vs price
-16.3 pts ±14.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -6.5 pts (3/6). Newer half: -26.0 pts (2/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 30, 10:32 EDTOct 18, 10:28 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers vs. Buccaneers | 44¢ | missed | 5d ago |
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 61¢ | missed | 11d ago |
| Colts vs. Commanders | 64¢ | called | 23d ago |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 59¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Lions vs. Bills | 69¢ | called | 36d ago |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees | 59¢ | missed | 71d ago |
| Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners | 41¢ | missed | 79d ago |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 67¢ | missed | 87d ago |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins | 57¢ | called | 136d ago |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 68¢ | missed | 138d ago |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 53¢ | called | 146d ago |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | 54¢ | called | 146d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.