Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$269
Return on staked
-24.5%
Bets
7/11 won
Edge vs price
-2.2 pts ±11.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -5.8 pts (3/5). Newer half: +0.8 pts (4/6).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Mar 17, 04:49 EDTAug 05, 02:18 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | 50¢ | missed | 80d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 72¢ | called | 88d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 88¢ | called | 95d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | 23¢ | missed | 153d ago |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? | 93¢ | called | 190d ago |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | 70¢ | called | 196d ago |
| Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? | 27¢ | missed | 199d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | 94¢ | called | 208d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 92¢ | called | 212d ago |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | 89¢ | called | 218d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 27¢ | missed | 221d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.