Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$360
Return on staked
-14.4%
Bets
10/25 won
Edge vs price
-11.5 pts ±9.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -22.6 pts (4/12). Newer half: -1.3 pts (6/13).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Apr 21, 11:16 EDTOct 12, 08:31 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 60¢ | missed | 12d ago |
| Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians | 42¢ | called | 19d ago |
| Jaguars vs. Bengals | 55¢ | missed | 26d ago |
| Spread: Eagles (-3.5) | 48¢ | missed | 27d ago |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | 38¢ | called | 31d ago |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees | 46¢ | missed | 32d ago |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | 50¢ | called | 36d ago |
| Cowboys vs. Giants | 39¢ | called | 41d ago |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Colorado Rockies | 46¢ | missed | 53d ago |
| Colorado Rockies vs. Washington Nationals | 43¢ | missed | 58d ago |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves | 47¢ | missed | 58d ago |
| Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays | 60¢ | called | 68d ago |
| Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees | 43¢ | called | 72d ago |
| Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays | 39¢ | called | 75d ago |
| San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres | 60¢ | missed | 85d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.