Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$271
Return on staked
-15.1%
Bets
9/18 won
Edge vs price
-0.2 pts ±10.8
Consistency check. Older half of bets: -0.2 pts (4/9). Newer half: -0.2 pts (5/9).
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
May 16, 15:42 EDTOct 14, 17:18 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 39¢ | called | 9d ago |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs | 58¢ | missed | 13d ago |
| New York Yankees vs. Arizona Diamondbacks | 60¢ | missed | 34d ago |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Baltimore Orioles | 58¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Los Angeles Angels | 51¢ | missed | 36d ago |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 54¢ | called | 37d ago |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | 54¢ | called | 37d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5) - BLAST Open Porto Playoffs | 64¢ | called | 47d ago |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-08-29? | 64¢ | missed | 56d ago |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-08-28? | 59¢ | called | 56d ago |
| Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance | 75¢ | called | 104d ago |
| Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 6¢ | missed | 107d ago |
| Argentina vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | called | 108d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 | 23¢ | missed | 133d ago |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | 47¢ | missed | 136d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.