Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$262
Return on staked
-65.5%
Bets
1/4 won
Edge vs price
-26.6 pts ±23.1
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jul 27, 23:13 EDTSep 14, 02:43 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 21¢ | missed | 40d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 56¢ | missed | 56d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | 57¢ | missed | 74d ago |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? | 72¢ | called | 88d ago |
Wallet page · Set an alert for this wallet
Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.