Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$31
Return on staked
-2.2%
Bets
12/14 won
Edge vs price
+2.3 pts ±7.6
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +5.5 pts (6/7). Newer half: -0.8 pts (6/7). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Oct 24, 23:13 EDTJul 29, 12:20 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 94¢ | called | 87d ago |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | 61¢ | called | 102d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 90¢ | called | 103d ago |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? | 89¢ | called | 104d ago |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 97¢ | missed | 135d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 91¢ | called | 165d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 84¢ | called | 167d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 96¢ | called | 173d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 92¢ | called | 177d ago |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | 85¢ | called | 180d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? | 97¢ | called | 196d ago |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | 95¢ | called | 298d ago |
| Xi Jinping out in 2025? | 3¢ | missed | 364d ago |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | 93¢ | called | 364d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.