Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
−$489
Return on staked
-54.3%
Bets
3/9 won
Edge vs price
-13.1 pts ±15.2
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jan 14, 15:03 ESTFeb 08, 02:51 EST
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | 33¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | 27¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | 47¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 35¢ | missed | 258d ago |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | 68¢ | called | 258d ago |
| Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | 23¢ | missed | 263d ago |
| Patriots vs. Broncos | 34¢ | missed | 272d ago |
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | 75¢ | called | 273d ago |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | 76¢ | called | 282d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.