Tools · Backtest
What if you had copied them?
Put a fixed stake on every graded flag a wallet made, at the price it paid, and see the hypothetical result. This looks backward only, and it is not a prediction or a recommendation.
Hypothetical P&L
+$1,412
Return on staked
+21.1%
Bets
39/67 won
Edge vs price
+11.3 pts ±6.0
Consistency check. Older half of bets: +15.7 pts (20/33). Newer half: +7.0 pts (19/34). The edge has faded in recent bets.
Cumulative hypothetical P&L, $100 per bet
Jun 11, 20:17 EDTOct 21, 04:49 EDT
Most recent bets in the test
| Market | Entry | Result | Placed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners | 53¢ | called | 2d ago |
| Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-21? | 34¢ | missed | 3d ago |
| Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-21? | 53¢ | called | 3d ago |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-10-14? | 45¢ | missed | 10d ago |
| Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Group Stage | 58¢ | called | 17d ago |
| Valorant: Global Esports vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group B | 30¢ | missed | 22d ago |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-10-01? | 52¢ | missed | 22d ago |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-09-28? | 48¢ | called | 25d ago |
| Will Norway win on 2026-09-24? | 43¢ | missed | 30d ago |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | 38¢ | called | 30d ago |
| Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers | 39¢ | called | 30d ago |
| Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 | 55¢ | called | 35d ago |
| Lions vs. Bills | 68¢ | called | 36d ago |
| Will AC Milan win on 2026-09-16? | 45¢ | missed | 37d ago |
| San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants | 59¢ | called | 42d ago |
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Why this overstates what you'd get
- You'd be late. Flags show up after the trade, often after the price has moved. Use "Copy delay" to price each bet 1 to 24 hours later from market history, or add an extra cost per fill.
- Picked after the fact. Wallets that look good here were chosen because they did well. Tick the out-of-sample box to test only bets made after the cutoff.
- Small samples are noisy. Look at the ± standard error. A few lucky long shots can make the P&L.
- Fees: many Polymarket markets charge no trading fee. Some charge a taker fee of rate × min(price, 1−price) per share. Set "fee rate" to model it.
- Ignores spreads, liquidity, partial fills, and sells before resolution. It counts only graded flags (placed ≥1h before close, 3¢–97¢).
Hypothetical results from public data. Not financial advice.