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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -30.0 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-30.0 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$47.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$46.5k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.79M volume · 7,879 trades · since Feb 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$46.5k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
63%
269 closed
Wallet age · markets
261d
233 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -30.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL No @ 99.4¢ | $12.8k | excluded |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.1¢ | $19.7k | excluded |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW SELL Yes @ 70¢ | $14.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfd8f5b…