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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$62.6k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$9,845
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.69M volume · 484 trades · since Jan 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$13.3k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$4,100
Closed-position win rate
85%
39 closed
Wallet age · markets
—
41 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 Will Trump visit China by May 31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 93¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
 US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $10.4k | excluded |
 US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
| US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $10.3k | excluded |
 US government shutdown Saturday? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.7¢ | $10.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfd1afa…