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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did -71.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-71.8 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.7
Flagged volume
$10.8k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±45.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$64.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.16M volume · 5,890 trades · since Dec 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$30.3k
Open P&L · 29 positions
−$97.3k
Closed-position win rate
33%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
683d
35 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crypto | 1 | 0 | 0.7 | -71.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 72¢ | $10.8k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfc5412…