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+$238No · avg 14¢ → 93.5¢ · $280−$159Yes · avg 91¢ → 34¢ · $94+$2No · avg 77¢ → 84¢ · $19−$73Yes · avg 84¢ → 12¢ · $12 · 0 proven with, 1 against
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+3.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$32.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$24.7k
Last 30 days +$17 · $2.59M volume · 5,305 trades · since Mar 30, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$21.3k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$3,412
Closed-position win rate
68%
218 closed
Wallet age · markets
208d
202 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $19.0k | called |
 Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 92.8¢ | $13.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfba638…