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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -51.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-51.2 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$35.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$25.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $287.8k volume · 24 trades · since Jan 30, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$10.1k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$10.3k
Closed-position win rate
67%
6 closed
Wallet age · markets
267d
11 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | -51.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 37¢ | $10.3k | missed |
 France vs. England: Team to Win | LOW BUY France @ 65¢ | $25.6k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfb653b…