cookie96

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -37.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the US announce a diesel export ban by October 31?+$512No · avg 79¢ → 97.8¢ · $2,670 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?+$25Yes · avg 13¢ → 14¢ · $675 US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?−$721Yes · avg 10¢ → 3.4¢ · $362 Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?+$72Yes · avg 26¢ → 74¢ · $110 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?−$76Yes · avg 21¢ → 12¢ · $92 · 0 proven with, 1 against Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?−$95Yes · avg 72¢ → 34¢ · $85 Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?+$45Yes · avg 4.1¢ → 14¢ · $64 Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$88Yes · avg 11¢ → 4¢ · $50

Price-adjusted edge

-37.8 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$48.7k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±22.3 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$21.4k

Last 30 days −$2,152 · $3.17M volume · 695 trades · since Jan 29, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$25.8k

Open P&L · 90 positions

−$36.7k

Closed-position win rate

78%

67 closed

Wallet age · markets

633d

155 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	1	1.8	-37.8 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 21¢	$10.6k	79%	102d ago	missed
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW SELL France @ 60¢	$12.1k	40%	102d ago	called
France vs. Spain: Team to Advance	LOW BUY France @ 60¢	$12.2k	60%	104d ago	missed
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 3.1¢	$13.7k	97%	111d ago	called

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

SELL Yes @ 21¢$10.6k

LOW cookie96 · 102d ago

France vs. Spain: Team to Advancecalled

SELL France @ 60¢$12.1k

LOW cookie96 · 102d ago

France vs. Spain: Team to Advancemissed

BUY France @ 60¢$12.2k

LOW cookie96 · 104d ago

Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 3.1¢$13.7k

LOW cookie96 · 111d ago

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