smoovster

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +14.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?−$3,306Yes · avg 45¢ → 32¢ · $8,424 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House−$2,421Yes · avg 34¢ → 26¢ · $7,579 Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$4,047Yes · avg 26¢ → 14¢ · $4,485 Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?−$881Yes · avg 13¢ → 10¢ · $4,119 Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?−$137Yes · avg 60¢ → 57¢ · $3,363 Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?−$1,291Yes · avg 41¢ → 29¢ · $3,243 Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?−$2,210No · avg 65¢ → 36¢ · $2,790 Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?+$375Yes · avg 58¢ → 69¢ · $2,375

Price-adjusted edge

+14.4 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$36.6k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±26.1 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$12.8k

Last 30 days −$12.1k · $2.07M volume · 211 trades · since Oct 20, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$9,443

Open P&L · 31 positions

−$21.5k

Closed-position win rate

67%

36 closed

Wallet age · markets

369d

66 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	2	1.3	+32.6 pts
Other	1	0	0.2	-22.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 32¢	$10.1k	68%	106d ago	called
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 33¢	$10.5k	67%	110d ago	called
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	LOW SELL Yes @ 78¢	$16.0k	22%	275d ago	missed

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 32¢$10.1k

LOW smoovster · 106d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 33¢$10.5k

LOW smoovster · 110d ago

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?missed

SELL Yes @ 78¢$16.0k

LOW smoovster · 275d ago

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