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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.2 wins, so it did -59.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-59.9 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.2
Flagged volume
$21.5k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.4 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$26.7k
Last 30 days +$0 · $934.7k volume · 1,077 trades · since Jan 01, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$9,391
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$33.5k
Closed-position win rate
88%
94 closed
Wallet age · markets
661d
94 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 1.2 | -59.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 66¢ | $10.3k | missed |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 54¢ | $11.2k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xfa51dc…