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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 3 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.0 wins, so it did -0.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-0.8 pts
Called / graded
3/4
Expected from price
3.0
Flagged volume
$73.2k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$100.0k
Last 30 days +$0 · $10.23M volume · 15,106 trades · since Jan 06, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.76M
Open P&L · 476 positions
−$1.37M
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
291d
1295 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 3 | 3.0 | -0.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Thunder vs. Pistons | LOW BUY Pistons @ 78¢ | $18.1k | called |
| Cavaliers vs. Bucks | LOW BUY Cavaliers @ 76¢ | $16.0k | missed |
| Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers | LOW BUY Timberwolves @ 69¢ | $11.2k | called |
 Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 80¢ | $16.0k | excluded |
| Grizzlies vs. Rockets | LOW BUY Rockets @ 80¢ | $12.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf9885d…