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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$106.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$42.1k
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.22M volume · 3,224 trades · since Nov 09, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 423 closed
−$14.3k
Open P&L · 12 positions
−$27.6k
Closed-position win rate
77%
423 closed
Wallet age · markets
2175d
392 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 95.8¢ | $15.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 86¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 89¢ | $13.4k | excluded |
| US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 97.8¢ | $18.0k | excluded |
 Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? | LOW BUY Yes @ 76¢ | $30.4k | excluded |
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 96.7¢ | $16.5k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf8a72c…