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+$18No · avg 65¢ → 78¢ · $102
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did +41.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+41.0 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$42.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$38.2k
Last 30 days +$1 · $2.45M volume · 2,198 trades · since Oct 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$21.2k
Open P&L · 5 positions
−$13.8k
Closed-position win rate
39%
87 closed
Wallet age · markets
364d
57 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 1 | 0.2 | +41.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 94¢ | $15.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 88¢ | $12.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf72ae1…