0xf5cf…9fc6

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -40.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?+$3,107No · avg 42¢ → 81¢ · $6,407 Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?+$215No · avg 64¢ → 84¢ · $899 Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?−$2,059No · avg 89¢ → 25¢ · $800 Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$444No · avg 81¢ → 17¢ · $120 Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?+$34No · avg 52¢ → 82¢ · $91 · 1 proven with, 0 against

Price-adjusted edge

-40.5 pts

Called / graded

1/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$60.3k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.7 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$18.6k

Last 30 days −$571 · $11.45M volume · 26,637 trades · since Oct 16, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$857.5k

Open P&L · 36 positions

−$29.0k

Closed-position win rate

58%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

738d

454 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	1	1.8	-40.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.4¢	$13.9k	97%	266d ago	excluded
US government shutdown Saturday?	LOW BUY Yes @ 88¢	$18.1k	88%	266d ago	called
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99¢	$16.4k	1%	273d ago	excluded
Maduro out by January 31, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 93¢	$12.0k	93%	294d ago	missed

US government shutdown Saturday?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.4¢$13.9k

LOW 0xf5cf…9fc6 · 266d ago

US government shutdown Saturday?called

BUY Yes @ 88¢$18.1k

LOW 0xf5cf…9fc6 · 266d ago

No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99¢$16.4k

LOW 0xf5cf…9fc6 · 273d ago

Maduro out by January 31, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 93¢$12.0k

LOW 0xf5cf…9fc6 · 294d ago

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