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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.4 wins, so it did +29.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+29.9 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.4
Flagged volume
$24.2k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$13.9k
Last 30 days −$1,529 · $4.01M volume · 10,115 trades · since Oct 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$232.5k
Open P&L · 500 positions
−$92.3k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
746d
2019 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 2 | 2 | 1.4 | +29.9 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | LOW BUY No @ 73¢ | $12.2k | called |
 Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | LOW BUY Yes @ 67¢ | $12.0k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf5bcf1…