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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -42.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-42.5 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$123.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$32.5k
Last 30 days +$83 · $2.52M volume · 1,242 trades · since Jan 17, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$208.2k
Open P&L · 92 positions
−$237.2k
Closed-position win rate
65%
274 closed
Wallet age · markets
280d
356 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -42.5 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 58¢ | $20.6k | excluded |
| England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 54¢ | $18.8k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 68¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | LOW BUY United States @ 54¢ | $10.8k | missed |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Mexico vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 52¢ | $15.6k | excluded |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? | LOW SELL No @ 89¢ | $16.5k | excluded |
| Will France win on 2026-06-26? | LOW SELL Yes @ 69¢ | $10.3k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf57eb9…