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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did -45.3 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-45.3 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$26.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±34.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$43.8k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.15M volume · 438 trades · since Mar 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$43.8k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
64%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
577d
46 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economy | 2 | 0 | 0.9 | -45.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US recession in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 61¢ | $14.9k | missed |
| US recession in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 48¢ | $11.7k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf2cba1…