Jargs

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.5 wins, so it did +46.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?−$2Yes · avg 20¢ → 20¢ · $98 · 0 proven with, 1 against

Price-adjusted edge

+46.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.5

Flagged volume

$328.1k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±49.8 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$410.0k

Last 30 days −$25.9k · $20.55M volume · 13,557 trades · since Jan 06, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L · recent 500 closed

+$2.11M

Open P&L · 1 positions

−$2

Closed-position win rate

100%

500 closed

Wallet age · markets

291d

1060 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.5	+46.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	LOW BUY Argentina @ 96.7¢	$96.7k 3.7× usual	97%	104d ago	excluded
Spurs vs. Knicks	LOW BUY Knicks @ 54¢	$23.1k	54%	135d ago	called
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW SELL No @ 99.8¢	$99.8k 3.8× usual	0%	205d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$49.8k	100%	206d ago	excluded
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?	LOW BUY No @ 30¢	$10.7k	30%	234d ago	excluded
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?	LOW BUY No @ 53¢	$21.9k	53%	248d ago	excluded
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?	MED BUY No @ 55¢	$26.1k	55%	248d ago	excluded

Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advanceexcluded

BUY Argentina @ 96.7¢$96.7k

LOW Jargs · 104d ago

Spurs vs. Knickscalled

BUY Knicks @ 54¢$23.1k

LOW Jargs · 135d ago

US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded

SELL No @ 99.8¢$99.8k

LOW Jargs · 205d ago

US forces enter Iran by March 31?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$49.8k

LOW Jargs · 206d ago

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?excluded

BUY No @ 30¢$10.7k

LOW Jargs · 234d ago

Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-17?excluded

BUY No @ 53¢$21.9k

LOW Jargs · 248d ago

Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17?excluded

BUY No @ 55¢$26.1k

MED Jargs · 248d ago

Share this record

<a href="https://whalegrader.com/wallet/0xf1649daae29c44bdb406a4dbb7f1748eac398fa4"><img src="https://whalegrader.com/badge/wallet/0xf1649daae29c44bdb406a4dbb7f1748eac398fa4.svg" alt="WhaleGrader record"></a>

JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf1649d…