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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 6. The prices it paid implied about 3.5 wins, so it did -42.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 6 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-42.2 pts
Called / graded
1/6
Expected from price
3.5
Flagged volume
$326.5k
Sample size6 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±19.8 pts std. error.
Graded P&L at their stakes
−$63k6 graded bets in the order they resolved · 1 won. Each step is one bet: win pays (1−price)/price × stake, loss costs the stake.
Past graded bets, not a prediction. Information, not advice.
Without their best bet
Leave out the single bet that helped most (Seahawks vs. Patriots at 68¢) and the edge is -57.0 pts. If that falls apart, one bet made the record.
Calibration: won vs price paid
40–60¢
0% vs 51% · n=3
60–80¢
33% vs 67% · n=3
Bar = how often they won. White tick = what the price implied.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$188.6k
Last 30 days −$299.1k · $75.12M volume · 104,493 trades · since Oct 13, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$9.45M
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
376d
2027 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 6 | 1 | 3.5 | -42.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Raiders vs. Chargers | LOW BUY Chargers @ 74¢ | $21.5k | excluded |
 LSU vs. Ole Miss | LOW BUY LSU @ 57¢ | $10.3k | missed |
 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 66¢ | $27.7k | missed |
| San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves | LOW BUY San Diego Padres @ 46¢ | $10.1k | missed |
 France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 98¢ | $14.6k | excluded |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? | LOW BUY Yes @ 95¢ | $49.0k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? | LOW BUY Yes @ 58¢ | $17.4k | excluded |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? | LOW BUY No @ 98.2¢ | $12.5k | excluded |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 79¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
| Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? | LOW BUY No @ 50¢ | $12.5k | missed |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99¢ | $26.5k | excluded |
| Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | LOW BUY Los Angeles Dodgers @ 66¢ | $13.6k | missed |
 Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev | LOW BUY Alcaraz @ 85¢ | $42.5k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
 T20 World Cup: India vs Namibia (Game 1) | LOW BUY India @ 99.5¢ | $11.8k | excluded |
| T20 World Cup: India vs Namibia (Game 1) | LOW BUY India @ 99.1¢ | $10.1k | excluded |
| Seahawks vs. Patriots | LOW BUY Seahawks @ 68¢ | $23.8k | called |
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