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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.8 wins, so it did +18.1 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+18.1 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.8
Flagged volume
$654.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±38.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$244.9k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.92M volume · 919 trades · since Jun 05, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$245.0k
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
70%
30 closed
Wallet age · markets
141d
28 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1 | 1 | 0.8 | +18.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Spain @ 93¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $28.2k | excluded |
| Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | LOW BUY Yes @ 45¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW SELL Argentina @ 41¢ | $45.0k | called |
| France vs. England: Team to Win | MED BUY England @ 91.3¢ | $75.0k 2.2× usual |
excluded |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | LOW BUY Argentina @ 40¢ | $81.0k 2.4× usual |
missed |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW SELL England @ 57¢ | $46.8k | excluded |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance | LOW BUY England @ 65¢ | $40.0k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 99.4¢ | $230.8k 6.8× usual |
excluded |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW BUY Yes @ 82¢ | $18.1k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | MED BUY Yes @ 30¢ | $23.6k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 40¢ | $20.8k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xf02008…