← Wallets
+$492Yes · avg 74¢ → 96.9¢ · $2,092−$46Yes · avg 13¢ → 1.4¢ · $5
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.3 wins, so it did -27.6 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
-27.6 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.3
Flagged volume
$25.0k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±44.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$23.2k
Last 30 days +$48 · $516.0k volume · 463 trades · since Apr 08, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$27.4k
Open P&L · 17 positions
−$3,874
Closed-position win rate
70%
30 closed
Wallet age · markets
200d
46 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1 | 0 | 0.3 | -27.6 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW SELL Yes @ 72¢ | $13.5k | missed |
 Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY No @ 98.3¢ | $11.5k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xef5c8e…