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+$4,557No · avg 50¢ → 83¢ · $11.4k+$124No · avg 94¢ → 95.8¢ · $6,793+$216No · avg 91.1¢ → 96.7¢ · $3,805+$333Yes · avg 82¢ → 91.5¢ · $3,111−$4,557Yes · avg 50¢ → 17¢ · $2,296+$1No · avg 89¢ → 97.8¢ · $6
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+4.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$146.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$60.4k
Last 30 days +$212 · $2.53M volume · 4,228 trades · since Jan 10, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$58.8k
Open P&L · 6 positions
+$674
Closed-position win rate
87%
30 closed
Wallet age · markets
287d
31 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $11.0k | called |
 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $49.8k 2.7× usual |
excluded |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ | $38.3k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ | $10.7k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ | $21.8k | excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢ | $14.9k | excluded |
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