keasiyo

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +14.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?−$21.0kYes · avg 39¢ → 16¢ · $14.6k Base FDV above $6B one day after launch?−$5,305Yes · avg 44¢ → 26¢ · $8,179 Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch?+$1,808Yes · avg 29¢ → 40¢ · $6,417 Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$2,118Yes · avg 7¢ → 13¢ · $4,743 Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?−$15.8kYes · avg 20¢ → 3.7¢ · $3,699 Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$97Yes · avg 7.7¢ → 8.9¢ · $727 Extended FDV above $800M one day after launch?−$436Yes · avg 22¢ → 8.5¢ · $274 Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?−$1,061Yes · avg 25¢ → 2.8¢ · $134

Price-adjusted edge

+14.2 pts

Called / graded

2/3

Expected from price

1.6

Flagged volume

$209.8k

Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.4 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$587.1k

Last 30 days −$27.1k · $22.98M volume · 47,323 trades · since Jun 19, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$1.31M

Open P&L · 141 positions

−$705.2k

Closed-position win rate

68%

168 closed

Wallet age · markets

492d

306 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	2	2	1.3	+35.1 pts
Crypto	1	0	0.3	-27.7 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	LOW BUY No @ 52¢	$10.4k	52%	120d ago	excluded
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	LOW BUY No @ 36¢	$10.8k	36%	130d ago	excluded
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 5.1¢	$27.7k 2.1× usual	95%	131d ago	called
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5	LOW SELL Under @ 55¢	$10.9k	45%	132d ago	called
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	MED BUY Yes @ 5.8¢	$30.4k 2.3× usual	6%	145d ago	missed
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW SELL Yes @ 16¢	$11.8k	84%	178d ago	called
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$76.0k 5.9× usual	0%	198d ago	excluded
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?	LOW BUY Yes @ 28¢	$18.8k	28%	225d ago	missed
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?	LOW BUY No @ 42¢	$13.0k	42%	264d ago	excluded

Will United States win on 2026-06-25?excluded

BUY No @ 52¢$10.4k

LOW keasiyo · 120d ago

Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?excluded

BUY No @ 36¢$10.8k

LOW keasiyo · 130d ago

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 5.1¢$27.7k

LOW keasiyo · 131d ago

England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5called

SELL Under @ 55¢$10.9k

LOW keasiyo · 132d ago

Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?missed

BUY Yes @ 5.8¢$30.4k

MED keasiyo · 145d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

SELL Yes @ 16¢$11.8k

LOW keasiyo · 178d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$76.0k

LOW keasiyo · 198d ago

Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March?missed

BUY Yes @ 28¢$18.8k

LOW keasiyo · 225d ago

Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-01?excluded

BUY No @ 42¢$13.0k

LOW keasiyo · 264d ago

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