0xecb9…5a12

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +12.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$930No · avg 92¢ → 87¢ · $17.5k Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$335No · avg 87¢ → 90¢ · $10.5k Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?−$241No · avg 94¢ → 91.1¢ · $7,562 Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?+$3,629Yes · avg 23¢ → 73¢ · $5,296 Will Gold have the best performance in 2026?+$971No · avg 63¢ → 95.5¢ · $2,867 Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?−$355Yes · avg 57¢ → 46¢ · $1,502 Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$64No · avg 73¢ → 79¢ · $794 Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+$10No · avg 95.3¢ → 97.9¢ · $392

Price-adjusted edge

+12.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.9

Flagged volume

$153.2k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±32.5 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$37.8k

Last 30 days +$2,195 · $438.4k volume · 192 trades · since Jan 18, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$29.9k

Open P&L · 26 positions

+$8,038

Closed-position win rate

69%

58 closed

Wallet age · markets

644d

83 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Sports	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.6¢	$19.9k	100%	254d ago	excluded
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢	$29.9k	100%	254d ago	excluded
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢	$29.8k	99%	254d ago	excluded
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢	$29.7k	99%	254d ago	excluded
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$44.0k	88%	254d ago	called

Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 99.6¢$19.9k

LOW 0xecb9…5a12 · 254d ago

Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 99.5¢$29.9k

LOW 0xecb9…5a12 · 254d ago

Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 99.2¢$29.8k

LOW 0xecb9…5a12 · 254d ago

Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?excluded

BUY No @ 98.9¢$29.7k

LOW 0xecb9…5a12 · 254d ago

Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?called

BUY No @ 88¢$44.0k

LOW 0xecb9…5a12 · 254d ago

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