i5mogger

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did +12.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Russia x Ukraine Peace Combo+$34No · avg 75¢ → 96¢ · $154

Price-adjusted edge

+12.3 pts

Called / graded

2/2

Expected from price

1.8

Flagged volume

$160.2k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.2 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$10.8k

Last 30 days +$3 · $909.5k volume · 861 trades · since Sep 09, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$27.5k

Open P&L · 11 positions

−$16.7k

Closed-position win rate

86%

97 closed

Wallet age · markets

410d

108 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Economy	1	1	0.9	+12.0 pts
Other	1	1	0.9	+12.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$30.8k	88%	39d ago	called
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW SELL No @ 99.3¢	$39.7k	1%	130d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.5¢	$43.0k	100%	199d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	LOW BUY No @ 88¢	$27.8k	88%	231d ago	called
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$18.9k	0%	237d ago	excluded

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?called

BUY No @ 88¢$30.8k

LOW i5mogger · 39d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?excluded

SELL No @ 99.3¢$39.7k

LOW i5mogger · 130d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.5¢$43.0k

LOW i5mogger · 199d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?called

BUY No @ 88¢$27.8k

LOW i5mogger · 231d ago

Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$18.9k

LOW i5mogger · 237d ago

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