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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +4.3 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+4.3 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$37.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±20.3 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$226
Last 30 days −$1 · $532.6k volume · 56 trades · since May 16, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$223
Open P&L · 4 positions
−$2
Closed-position win rate
25%
12 closed
Wallet age · markets
161d
10 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +4.3 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.5¢ | $18.7k | excluded |
 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | LOW BUY No @ 95.7¢ | $18.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xeb53c5…