mindeirs

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did -49.5 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?−$1,450Yes · avg 20¢ → 5.5¢ · $550 Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?−$677Yes · avg 27¢ → 3.1¢ · $89

Price-adjusted edge

-49.5 pts

Called / graded

0/2

Expected from price

1.0

Flagged volume

$85.3k

Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$75.1k

Last 30 days −$177 · $5.05M volume · 3,766 trades · since Apr 04, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$21.1k

Open P&L · 15 positions

−$99.5k

Closed-position win rate

65%

74 closed

Wallet age · markets

202d

81 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	2	0	1.0	-49.5 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	LOW SELL No @ 93¢	$10.7k	7%	123d ago	missed
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	LOW BUY No @ 92¢	$13.8k	92%	136d ago	missed
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.9¢	$31.9k 2.3× usual	0%	184d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW SELL Yes @ 87¢	$17.9k	13%	191d ago	excluded
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	LOW BUY Yes @ 63¢	$11.0k	63%	197d ago	called

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?missed

SELL No @ 93¢$10.7k

LOW mindeirs · 123d ago

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?missed

BUY No @ 92¢$13.8k

LOW mindeirs · 136d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.9¢$31.9k

LOW mindeirs · 184d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?excluded

SELL Yes @ 87¢$17.9k

LOW mindeirs · 191d ago

Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?called

BUY Yes @ 63¢$11.0k

LOW mindeirs · 197d ago

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