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ProfShenaniger

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did +41.9 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+41.9 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$85.4k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.9 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$14.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.37M volume · 578 trades · since Jul 23, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L
+$45.3k
Open P&L · 9 positions
−$30.7k
Closed-position win rate
42%
78 closed
Wallet age · markets
823d
85 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other210.2+41.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?LOW SELL Yes @ 96.9¢ $14.3k3% 154d agocalled
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?LOW BUY Yes @ 13¢ $10.0k13% 172d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?LOW SELL Yes @ 20¢ $34.9k80% 173d agocalled
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?MED BUY Yes @ 19¢ $26.2k19% 174d agomissed

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