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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$41.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±17.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$28.2k
Last 30 days +$0 · $2.68M volume · 582 trades · since Dec 24, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$26.3k
Open P&L · 14 positions
−$53.2k
Closed-position win rate
89%
35 closed
Wallet age · markets
304d
48 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $19.3k | excluded |
 New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 98.4¢ | $12.0k | excluded |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 31? | LOW BUY No @ 97¢ | $10.4k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe4ccbf…