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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.3 wins, so it did -12.8 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-12.8 pts
Called / graded
1/2
Expected from price
1.3
Flagged volume
$102.9k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±29.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$23.7k
Last 30 days −$8,329 · $8.85M volume · 759 trades · since Feb 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$130.2k
Open P&L · 32 positions
−$102.4k
Closed-position win rate
38%
279 closed
Wallet age · markets
624d
330 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 1 | 1.3 | -12.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova | LOW SELL Linda Noskova @ 69¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
 US Open ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Karen Khachanov | LOW SELL Karen Khachanov @ 99.9¢ | $19.0k | excluded |
 Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $14.1k | missed |
 Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW SELL Yes @ 13¢ | $12.9k | called |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY Yes @ 11¢ | $12.5k | called |
 Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | LOW SELL Yes @ 62¢ | $31.5k 2.3× usual |
missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe4b14e…