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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 3. The prices it paid implied about 2.2 wins, so it did -41.2 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 3 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-41.2 pts
Called / graded
1/3
Expected from price
2.2
Flagged volume
$216.4k
Sample size3 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±25.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$45.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $1.03M volume · 266 trades · since Jan 07, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$39.2k
Open P&L · 1 positions
−$6,000
Closed-position win rate
60%
90 closed
Wallet age · markets
290d
86 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 3 | 1 | 2.2 | -41.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? | LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢ | $16.9k | called |
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 60¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 62¢ | $14.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 65¢ | $15.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 74¢ | $21.4k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 28¢ | $10.4k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL No @ 65¢ | $41.5k 2.6× usual |
called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 62¢ | $40.0k 2.5× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED SELL Yes @ 42¢ | $32.4k 2.0× usual |
missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 36¢ | $10.3k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xe47439…