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+$36No · avg 74¢ → 91¢ · $193+$31No · avg 71¢ → 94.5¢ · $125
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +6.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+6.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$105.9k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±23.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$11.5k
Last 30 days +$11 · $1.29M volume · 2,856 trades · since Jun 26, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$23.4k
Open P&L · 22 positions
−$4,678
Closed-position win rate
58%
319 closed
Wallet age · markets
485d
318 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +6.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $20.0k | called |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 89¢ | $52.9k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | MED SELL No @ 91¢ | $33.1k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xdfee1d…