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What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
—
Called / graded
0/0
Expected from price
0.0
Flagged volume
$140.3k
Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$14.5k
Last 30 days −$0 · $3.37M volume · 1,263 trades · since Jun 06, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$14.2k
Open P&L · 2 positions
−$323
Closed-position win rate
44%
151 closed
Wallet age · markets
870d
127 markets traded
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW SELL Yes @ 98.3¢ | $63.2k 2.8× usual |
excluded |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94.2¢ | $20.7k | called |
 Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW SELL No @ 93¢ | $23.5k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY No @ 91¢ | $23.0k | excluded |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | LOW BUY Yes @ 34¢ | $10.0k | missed |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xdef028…