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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.8 wins, so it did -90.1 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-90.1 pts
Called / graded
0/2
Expected from price
1.8
Flagged volume
$101.1k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±21.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$120.3k
Last 30 days +$0 · $188.7k volume · 9 trades · since Jun 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$1,898
Open P&L · 3 positions
−$122.2k
Closed-position win rate
100%
1 closed
Wallet age · markets
136d
4 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 2 | 0 | 1.8 | -90.1 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 91.7¢ | $34.2k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 63¢ | $15.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 89¢ | $30.0k | missed |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | MED BUY No @ 83¢ | $21.9k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xdcae82…