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third-eye

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 0 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.2 wins, so it did -18.9 pts worse than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
-18.9 pts
Called / graded
0/1
Expected from price
0.2
Flagged volume
$466.6k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±39.2 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$157.6k
Last 30 days +$0 · $24.79M volume · 10,686 trades · since Jan 20, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API
Realized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$379.2k
Open P&L · 34 positions
−$30.0k
Closed-position win rate
95%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
277d
639 markets traded

By category

CategoryGradedCalledExpectedEdge
Other100.2-18.9 pts

History

MarketFlagSizeImplied oddsWhenResult
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?LOW SELL No @ 97.7¢ $20.5k2% 80d agoexcluded
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?LOW SELL No @ 98¢ $25.9k2% 80d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ $53.8k
2.6× usual
99% 93d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢ $24.9k99% 94d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?LOW BUY No @ 98.9¢ $10.8k99% 98d agoexcluded
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?LOW BUY No @ 99.8¢ $20.1k100% 101d agoexcluded
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?LOW BUY No @ 97.1¢ $10.8k97% 106d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 99.7¢ $10.0k100% 115d agoexcluded
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW SELL No @ 95.1¢ $14.3k5% 122d agomissed
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?LOW BUY No @ 73¢ $14.6k73% 131d agocalled
US forces enter Iran by March 31?LOW SELL No @ 81¢ $19.9k19% 214d agomissed
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more?LOW BUY No @ 98¢ $30.0k98% 263d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 99.4¢ $29.8k99% 270d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW SELL Yes @ 98.9¢ $29.7k1% 271d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ $69.2k
3.4× usual
0% 271d agoexcluded
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?LOW BUY No @ 99.9¢ $62.8k
3.1× usual
100% 272d agoexcluded
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?LOW BUY Yes @ 98.3¢ $19.7k98% 274d agoexcluded

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