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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 1.0 wins, so it did +3.4 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.4 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
1.0
Flagged volume
$115.4k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±18.1 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
+$162.3k
Last 30 days −$0 · $2.18M volume · 1,608 trades · since Jan 08, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$168.6k
Open P&L · 7 positions
−$6,391
Closed-position win rate
65%
115 closed
Wallet age · markets
289d
113 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | +3.4 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 99.5¢ | $12.9k | excluded |
 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | LOW BUY Yes @ 98.2¢ | $12.2k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.9¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
 Netanyahu out by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.9¢ | $25.7k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 96.6¢ | $10.0k | called |
 Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | LOW BUY No @ 47¢ | $34.5k 2.1× usual |
excluded |
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