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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 4 of 4. The prices it paid implied about 3.9 wins, so it did +3.2 pts better than the market expected. That's only 4 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+3.2 pts
Called / graded
4/4
Expected from price
3.9
Flagged volume
$238.7k
Sample size4 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±8.8 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$122
Last 30 days +$0 · $3.78M volume · 261 trades · since Mar 03, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
−$122
Open P&L · 0 positions
+$0
Closed-position win rate
7%
28 closed
Wallet age · markets
235d
28 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4 | 4 | 3.9 | +3.2 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 99.2¢ | $29.6k | excluded |
 Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $29.8k | called |
 Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW SELL No @ 98.7¢ | $29.8k | excluded |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
 Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.9¢ | $29.9k | called |
| Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? | LOW BUY No @ 98.8¢ | $29.9k | excluded |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $29.9k | called |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | LOW BUY No @ 96.8¢ | $29.9k | called |
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