← Wallets
−$3,639Yes · avg 85¢ → 80¢ · $53.7k−$1,443Yes · avg 85¢ → 76¢ · $13.0k−$234Yes · avg 87¢ → 77¢ · $1,854+$65No · avg 89¢ → 94.5¢ · $1,191−$134Yes · avg 59¢ → 53¢ · $1,183+$17No · avg 95.9¢ → 98.2¢ · $703−$75Yes · avg 82¢ → 67¢ · $332−$29Yes · avg 57¢ → 51¢ · $268
What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +15.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Current positions
Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.
Price-adjusted edge
+15.0 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$210.5k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$75.0k
Last 30 days −$26.0k · $1.68M volume · 1,766 trades · since Apr 10, 20:00 EDT
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 443 closed
−$61.7k
Open P&L · 47 positions
−$7,391
Closed-position win rate
68%
443 closed
Wallet age · markets
197d
483 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +15.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL Yes @ 97¢ | $77.3k 3.1× usual |
excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW BUY Yes @ 77¢ | $30.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 33¢ | $15.9k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | LOW SELL No @ 79¢ | $17.3k | excluded |
 Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | LOW BUY Yes @ 94¢ | $20.0k | excluded |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $25.0k | called |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | LOW BUY No @ 94¢ | $25.0k | excluded |
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