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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 2 of 2. The prices it paid implied about 1.6 wins, so it did +21.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 2 graded bets, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+21.0 pts
Called / graded
2/2
Expected from price
1.6
Flagged volume
$59.6k
Sample size2 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±27.7 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$197.7k
Last 30 days −$23 · $10.47M volume · 9,529 trades · since Dec 16, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L · recent 500 closed
+$1.93M
Open P&L · 23 positions
−$233.6k
Closed-position win rate
100%
500 closed
Wallet age · markets
312d
2373 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 2 | 2 | 1.6 | +21.0 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | LOW BUY Yes @ 68¢ | $27.5k | called |
 Nets vs. Celtics | LOW BUY Celtics @ 90¢ | $18.0k | called |
| Thunder vs. Raptors | LOW BUY Raptors @ 52¢ | $14.2k | excluded |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd4dafa…