AishahSofey

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.7 wins, so it did +32.0 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Current positions

Live from Polymarket (largest 8 open). P&L is unrealised, at today's price.

Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?+$173Yes · avg 5.2¢ → 74¢ · $186 Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?+$59No · avg 57¢ → 86¢ · $173 Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?+$105No · avg 31¢ → 81¢ · $172 SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?−$18Yes · avg 39¢ → 22¢ · $22

Price-adjusted edge

+32.0 pts

Called / graded

1/1

Expected from price

0.7

Flagged volume

$175.6k

Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±46.6 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

+$64.7k

Last 30 days +$66 · $7.55M volume · 10,694 trades · since Feb 19, 19:00 EST

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

+$68.6k

Open P&L · 71 positions

−$19.4k

Closed-position win rate

55%

398 closed

Wallet age · markets

247d

328 markets traded

By category

Category	Graded	Called	Expected	Edge
Other	1	1	0.7	+32.0 pts

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	LOW SELL No @ 98.5¢	$12.4k	1%	159d ago	excluded
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢	$18.6k	100%	177d ago	excluded
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	LOW SELL No @ 97.4¢	$10.0k	3%	178d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$50.7k 4.1× usual	0%	199d ago	excluded
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY Yes @ 99.3¢	$17.7k	99%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 97.9¢	$33.0k 2.7× usual	98%	202d ago	excluded
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	LOW BUY No @ 68¢	$11.6k	68%	229d ago	called
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	LOW SELL No @ 99.7¢	$10.9k	0%	237d ago	excluded
Will GTA 6 cost $100+?	LOW BUY No @ 99.4¢	$10.8k	99%	246d ago	excluded

Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?excluded

SELL No @ 98.5¢$12.4k

LOW AishahSofey · 159d ago

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.8¢$18.6k

LOW AishahSofey · 177d ago

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?excluded

SELL No @ 97.4¢$10.0k

LOW AishahSofey · 178d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$50.7k

LOW AishahSofey · 199d ago

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY Yes @ 99.3¢$17.7k

LOW AishahSofey · 199d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

BUY Yes @ 97.9¢$33.0k

LOW AishahSofey · 202d ago

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?called

BUY No @ 68¢$11.6k

LOW AishahSofey · 229d ago

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?excluded

SELL No @ 99.7¢$10.9k

LOW AishahSofey · 237d ago

Will GTA 6 cost $100+?excluded

BUY No @ 99.4¢$10.8k

LOW AishahSofey · 246d ago

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