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What this means. On its $10k+ bets, this wallet won 1 of 1. The prices it paid implied about 0.9 wins, so it did +14.8 pts better than the market expected. That's only 1 graded bet, too few to judge. Information, not advice. How to read this →
Price-adjusted edge
+14.8 pts
Called / graded
1/1
Expected from price
0.9
Flagged volume
$67.1k
Sample size1 graded · too small to judge skill
We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±35.5 pts std. error.
Lifetime P&L on Polymarket
−$5,490
Last 30 days −$5,742 · $4.94M volume · 9,809 trades · since Feb 02, 19:00 EST
All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.
Polymarket profile
all trades, not just flags · public Data APIRealized P&L
+$6,592
Open P&L · 8 positions
−$12.1k
Closed-position win rate
68%
47 closed
Wallet age · markets
265d
47 markets traded
By category
| Category | Graded | Called | Expected | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | +14.8 pts |
History
| Market | Flag | Size | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
 Timberwolves vs. Nuggets | LOW SELL Nuggets @ 79¢ | $22.7k | excluded |
 US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | LOW BUY Yes @ 99.8¢ | $22.6k | excluded |
 US forces enter Iran by March 31? | LOW SELL No @ 99.5¢ | $11.1k | excluded |
 Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | LOW BUY No @ 85¢ | $10.6k | called |
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JSON: /api/v1/wallet/0xd3acfb…