fatsloth

Directional Polymarket profile ↗ Backtest Alert me

What this means. We haven't graded any of this wallet's $10k+ bets yet. Information, not advice. How to read this →

Price-adjusted edge

—

Called / graded

0/0

Expected from price

0.0

Flagged volume

$52.4k

Sample size0 graded · too small to judge skill

We treat records under 20 graded flags as noise. ±0.0 pts std. error.

Lifetime P&L on Polymarket

−$32.2k

Last 30 days −$0 · $2.09M volume · 759 trades · since Jul 02, 20:00 EDT

All of this wallet's trading, from Polymarket's P&L data (realized + open). Our grades below only cover its $10k+ bets, scored against the price paid. A big P&L can come from a few huge wins; edge vs price tells you whether it's repeatable.

Polymarket profile

all trades, not just flags · public Data API

Realized P&L

−$26.6k

Open P&L · 2 positions

−$5,594

Closed-position win rate

41%

341 closed

Wallet age · markets

479d

319 markets traded

History

Market	Flag	Size	Implied odds	When	Result
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	LOW BUY No @ 71¢	$10.4k	71%	199d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW SELL Yes @ 99.7¢	$20.4k	0%	202d ago	excluded
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	LOW BUY Yes @ 78¢	$10.5k	78%	203d ago	called
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	LOW BUY Yes @ 38¢	$11.2k	38%	247d ago	excluded

US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?excluded

BUY No @ 71¢$10.4k

LOW fatsloth · 199d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?excluded

SELL Yes @ 99.7¢$20.4k

LOW fatsloth · 202d ago

US forces enter Iran by April 30?called

BUY Yes @ 78¢$10.5k

LOW fatsloth · 203d ago

US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?excluded

BUY Yes @ 38¢$11.2k

LOW fatsloth · 247d ago

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